This study is from the United States Army Command and General Staff College School of Advanced Military Studies and MAJ Jonathan M. Chakeres (US Army). It has footnotes, an acronym list, maps, bibliography, and appendixes (Vladimir Putin’s “Speech at a Plenary Session of the Russian Federation Ambassadors” and “Permanent Representatives Meeting and Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation April 25, 2005”).
“Many observers cite the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West as an indication of growing Russian ambition and naked aggression. Growing numbers of reports and studies focus on Russia’s offensive military capabilities and postulate how Russia could invade the small Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These discussions are misleading because they lack an overall political and strategic framework to examine any conflict between Russia and the Baltics. This monograph uses the Russian experience in World War II as a lens to view Russia’s perspectives towards the Baltics and to observe what historical legacies are still relevant. The monograph uses a variety of secondary sources, as well as translated Russian professional military writings and official statements to illustrate both change and continuity in Russian security policies towards the Baltics since World War II. Russia’s most important lessons from the Great Patriotic War include the requirement to protect their western borders from sudden invasion and the threat from disloyal ethnic or nationalist groups that undermine military objectives and the narrative of national unity. Additionally, the lengthy resistance to Soviet occupation before, during and after the war suggests that even the most ambitious Russian policymakers today are likely to be skeptical of any idea involving the permanent occupation of these non-Slavic states. Instead, any Russian actions will likely serve to deny NATO the use of military infrastructure in the region, prevent the defection of Belarus to the West, and reinforce Moscow’s domestic narratives. The statements and actions of Russian leaders today suggest a strong continuity of geostrategic thinking towards the Baltic region, and they indicate that the legacy of the Great Patriotic War is still potent in the minds of Russian officials.”