Intra-Industry Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and the Reorientation of Eastern European Exports
Description:... September 1996 To what extent does growth in exports in Central and Eastern Europe reflect economic restructuring and changes in the composition of trade as opposed to redirection of traditional CMEA exports to the West? In the first half of the 1990s, after the demise of central planning, exports to OECD countries from many Central and Eastern European countries grew rapidly. Hoekman and Djankov explore what trade data suggest about the extent to which growth in exports reflect economic restructuring and changes in the composition of trade as opposed to redirection of traditional CMEA exports to the West. They also investigate the role of vertical intra-industry exchange in the expansion of trade with Western Europe - that is, getting inputs from European Union (EU) suppliers that are then used in the production of goods exported to the EU. They find a strong relationship between export performance and growth in vertical intra-industry trade with the EU. The Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia all rely heavily on the EU for inputs - more so than Austria, Portugal, and Spain, for example. As their per capita exports to the EU have also grown the fastest, this appears to be a characteristic of successful transition. The Czech and Slovak Republics registered the highest growth in exports and the greatest reorientation in the pattern of trade. They have the highest level and rate of growth in intra-industry trade with the EU, but have undergone the least change in composition of exports. But substantial changes have occurred in the composition of exports within traditional export categories. This suggests that Czech and Slovak firms pursued a strategy of upgrading and differentiating traditional exports, relying on EU firms for new machinery, components, and know-how. Simple redirection of goods that were traditionally exported to CMEA markets does not appear to have played an important role in the growth of exports to Western Europe. Export growth is in products that were not exported to the CMEA or in traditional export items that have been substantially upgraded or differentiated. Inflows of foreign direct investment - limited before 1994 - correlate highly with levels of intra-industry trade. But if large investments in the automobile sector are excluded, foreign direct investment seems unlikely to have been a major force driving the growth of intra-industry trade. These exchanges and the underlying integration into the world economy (Western Europe) mostly reflect arm's-length transactions between Central and Eastern European firms and their European counterparts. This paper - a product of the Private Sector and Finance Team, Europe and Central Asia, and Middle East and North Africa Technical Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to monitor economic developments in Central and Eastern Europe.
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