Description:... This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.
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شماره کارت : 6104337650971516 شماره حساب : 8228146163 شناسه شبا (انتقال پایا) : IR410120020000008228146163 بانک ملت به نام مهدی تاج دینی