Sustainability Assessments - Review of Application and Methodological Refinements

• Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept., International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,
• Publisher: International Monetary Fund
• Pages: 72
• ISBN_10: 1498329454
  ISBN_13: 9781498329453
  
• Language: en
• Categories: Business & Economics / Exports & Imports , Business & Economics / Public Finance , Business & Economics / Finance / Financial Risk Management ,

Description:... I. Introduction -- II. Sustainability Assessments: Experience and Conceptual Issues -- A. Experience with Use of Sustainability Templates -- B. Assessment -- C. Summary -- III. Calibration of Sensitivity Tests -- A. Event Study Approach -- B. Stochastic Simulation Approach -- Probability Density Function of Debt Outcomes -- Calibration of Sensitivity Tests in Standard Template -- C. Summary -- IV. Scenario Analysis -- V. Contingent Liabilities -- A. Stress-Test Approach -- B. Cross-Country Evidence -- C. Summary -- VI. Interpreting Debt Ratios -- A. Debt Thresholds -- B. Debt-Stabilizing Primary Surplus -- C. Financing Needs -- D. Summary -- VII. Proposed Changes and Enhancements -- A. Design, Use, and Resource Implications of the Standard Template -- B. Publication of Debt Sustainability Assessments -- VIII. Issues for Discussion -- References -- Text Tables -- 1. Preparation and Publication of Debt Sustainability Analysis Using Standard Template -- 2. Examples of Contingent Liabilities -- 3. Estimated Costs of Banking Crisis Across Selected Financial System Indicators -- 4. Revised External Debt Sustainability Template -- 5. Revised Public Debt Sustainability Template -- Figures -- 1. Pre-Crisis Trends in Key Variables -- 2. Stochastic Simulation of Debt Ratio -- 3. Probabilistic Bounds and P-values -- 4. Frequency Distributions of P-values of First, Second, and Third Most Extreme Sensitivity Tests -- 5. Estimated Costs of Banking Crises -- 6. Public and External Debt Ratios in Sovereign Debt Crisis -- 7. Fitted Probability of Sovereign Debt Crisis -- 8. Debt Ratio and Gross External Financing Need -- Boxes -- 1. How Good (or Bad) are WEO Projections of External and Public Debt? -- 2. Presentation of DSA in Staff Reports: An Example -- 3. Retrospective Debt Sustainability Analysis in Four Capital Account Crises -- 4. An Early Warning Model of Sovereign Debt Crises -- 5. Proposed Enhancements to Standard Debt Sustainability Framework -- Appendices -- I. Errors in WEO Projections of Public and External Debt -- II. Stochastic Simulation of External Debt Ratio -- III. Cross-Country Evidence on the Cost of Banking Crises -- IV. Methods Employed by Investment Houses and Rating Agencies for Assessing Debt Sustainability.