An Evaluation of the Utility of Large-scale Economic Models for Socio-economic Impact Assessment
Description:... Large scale investment projects, such as the energy developments proposed for Atlantic Canada, the Arctic and Western Canada in the early 1980's, stimulated keen interest in the estimation of their social and economic impacts. The use of large-scale economic models was seen as a possible method of assessing these impacts. This report examines the utility of large-scale economic models for examining the socio-economic impact of private and public sector projects within a Social Impact Assessment (SIA) framework. It begins by examining the nature of the SIA in Canada to identify the types of questions and the variables that are normally of interest, and for which large-scale models should be able to assist in developing answers. A set of study models, chosen for their apparent usefulness for SIA work and public availability, are described in summary fashion to outline their main conceptual features. Each of the study models is examined in terms of a set of technical characteristics to provide an overview of its capability to deal with SIA questions and issues. The strengths and limitations of multipliers and some issues of interpretation for SIA work are discussed. The features of the different classes of models, and the properties of specific models, especially suited to analyze and assess typical SIA economic impact concerns are identified.
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