Violent Systems: Defeating Terrorists, Insurgents, and Other Non-State Adversaries
Description:... This is the 52nd volume in the Occasional Paper series of the U.S. Air Force Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). This paper continues the work begun by Troy Thomas and Stephen Kiser in "Lords of the Silk Route: Violent Non-State Actors in Central Asia" (INSS Occasional Paper 43, May 2002). Inter-state war no longer dominates the landscape of modern conflict. Rather, collective violence and challenges to the international system come increasingly from violent non-state actors (VNSA). With few exceptions, VNSA play a prominent, often destabilizing role in nearly every humanitarian and political crisis faced by the international community. The broad spectrum of objectives and asymmetric methods of these contemporary Barbary Pirates fractures traditional conceptions of deterrence and warfighting. The authors contend that deterrence remains a viable strategy for meeting their challenge if adapted to an understanding of VNSA as dynamic biological systems. The prolonged utility of deterrence hinges on insight into VNSA life cycles and a broader conception of the psychology inherent in organizational decision making. Bundled as "broad biological deterrence" (BBD), they develop deterrent strategies that tackle the VNSA threat throughout its life cycle. However, the authors also realize that deterrence may not work in every case. This sets up a counter-VNSA (C-VNSA) strategy that goes beyond coercion to the defeat of the enemy. At its core, their C-VNSA strategy defeats a VNSA by the following: (1) denying the negative entropy, or stores of energy, required to survive attack; and (2) disrupting congruence, or fit, among sub-systems to achieve system failure. By also understanding the indicators of organizational change during its developmental life cycle, preemptory defeat before the VNSA reaches maturity becomes feasible. Their approach allows for measuring campaign progress by assessing changes in VNSA effectiveness.
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